- Last Updated on Tuesday, 11 September 2012 19:55
- Published on Tuesday, 11 September 2012 19:55
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There is, or at least there was, an old rule of thumb when it came to national politics. It wasn’t particularly formal, but I heard it repeated enough, and saw it validated enough, that it seemed like a pretty good generalization. The rule dealt with the size and loyalty of the Democratic and Republican base. Namely, that roughly 35% of the voters can be guaranteed to support one party while another 35%, give or take, will support the other party. That took care of about 70% of the voters. However, the remainder, roughly 30%, though some might lean one way or the other, were the independents, and were the votes both parties fought for during the general election.
- Last Updated on Wednesday, 05 September 2012 15:07
- Published on Wednesday, 05 September 2012 15:07
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Of all the hundreds of TV advertisements that will run this fall it’s estimated that more than 80% of them will be negative. Of course, there is nothing new in negative campaigning. Each election cycle, we carry on as if it’s a new horror of the American political system, but it’s not. Negative campaigning has been around since the beginning of the republic. They didn’t have television or radio back then, but ask Thomas Jefferson or Abraham Lincoln about negative campaigns, then, in the form of fliers, and editorials, and they will know exactly what you’re talking about.
- Last Updated on Tuesday, 28 August 2012 22:09
- Published on Tuesday, 28 August 2012 22:09
- Hits: 999
It’s an open question. Namely, is the great recession really over? Economists will tell you, yes it is. The economy has been growing, albeit minimally for several years now. They call that a recovery. Unfortunately, the reality is that it sure doesn’t feel like one. Whether you’re in the Northern Neck, Southern California, or Texas, businesses are still closing, and jobs remain scarce.
The number most economists cite in discussing the health of the economy is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). That’s the sum total of everything we buy, sell, and save in the United States. And yes, it’s been growing at a rate of about 2%. But, while technically a recovery, because it’s increasing, it’s still the weakest rebound in 60 years. For there to be any real improvement in our economic conditions, in terms of business activity and jobs, the rate of GDP growth would have to at least double.
- Last Updated on Tuesday, 21 August 2012 22:02
- Published on Tuesday, 21 August 2012 22:02
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“In a sense, Romney, not an idea man by nature, infused his campaign with a few big ideas, by picking a running mate who has lots of them.”
Contrary to what many politicians of both parties think the American people can still get excited by a discussion of ideas. Of course, the sad part is that on a national level, the discussion of ideas; about the role of government, our role in the world, and yes, just our philosophy of governance in general, gets a minimum of air time.
It’s far easier to hatch far-out conspiracy theories about the President’s place of birth, or, to dominate today’s 24 hour news cycle asking the probing question of whether or not Mitt Romney paid 13% in income taxes in 2010. In this environment ideas get shunted off to the side.
- Last Updated on Tuesday, 14 August 2012 20:56
- Published on Tuesday, 14 August 2012 20:56
- Hits: 890
Republicans have started to rally behind their nominee. It was a fractious series of primaries, the jabs, the ads, and the commentaries were harsh, but, of course, that’s politics. Now, with the exception of some of the most hardcore, and they’re likely to come around before too long, the GOP is ready to nominate Mitt Romney. He should, by all conventional wisdom, particularly given the poor state of the economy, be the odds on favorite in November.
- Last Updated on Wednesday, 08 August 2012 15:20
- Published on Wednesday, 08 August 2012 15:20
- Hits: 763
A Statistical Model of Election 2012
Probably one of the most dangerous things to do when it comes to forecasting the outcome of an election is to rely too heavily on statistical models. They are, after all, only representations of human behavior, and humans, when they vote and make decisions, aren’t always consistent. I know I’m not. A model may predict one outcome for an election, while the people doing the voting, may do something entirely different. It happens all the time.
However, one indicator that seems to have the most profound impact on the outcome of a national political campaign is the state of the economy. A good economy or a bad economy is often the deciding factor in who wins and who loses the race for the White House. Other issues can have a substantial impact on the result, but none seems to correlate so closely with the outcome as does the strength of the economy.